Summary (tl;dr)

Tropical Storm Nolo is rapidly strengthening in the Central Pacific and is projected to become a major hurricane, threatening Hawaii with catastrophic flooding, landslides, and damaging winds by the weekend, particularly on Hawaii Island and Maui.

Essential Background

The 2026 hurricane season in the Central Pacific has been notably active, with Tropical Storm Nolo marking the third significant hurricane threat to Hawaii this year, following Hurricane Lala and Hurricane Lowell. This contrasts with the Atlantic hurricane season, which has remained unusually quiet, largely attributed to strong El Niño conditions creating unfavorable atmospheric conditions for storm development.

The Full Story

Tropical Storm Nolo, currently positioned south of Hawaii, is expected to intensify into a hurricane by Thursday night and could reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher) by Saturday. Forecasters predict its closest approach to Hawaii Island will be on Friday and Saturday. The storm is anticipated to bring extreme rainfall, with Hawaii Island potentially receiving 15 to 20 inches, and isolated areas in the southeast of the Big Island possibly seeing up to 35 inches. This excessive rainfall poses a severe risk of catastrophic, life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in areas with steep terrain on both Hawaii Island and Maui.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Hawaii County, indicating that hurricane conditions, including winds of 74 miles per hour or stronger, are possible within 48 hours. Authorities have urged residents and visitors across the state, especially on the Big Island and Maui, to finalize emergency plans, check supplies, and prepare properties for potential flooding and damaging winds. Evacuation is being considered for residents in flood-prone areas, particularly in southeast Hawaii Island. In response to the approaching storm, Hawaii Governor Josh Green has ordered all state offices and public schools on Hawaii Island and Maui to close on Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Polo is also strengthening off Mexico's southwestern coast, raising concerns for heavy rain and mudslides in the region.

Why It Matters

The impending arrival of Tropical Storm Nolo as a potentially major hurricane poses an immediate and severe threat to the lives and infrastructure of the Hawaiian Islands. The forecasted catastrophic flooding, landslides, damaging winds, and possible storm surge could lead to widespread devastation, significant economic impact, and prolonged disruption of essential services and daily life for residents and tourists alike. The recurring threats this hurricane season underscore the critical need for robust emergency preparedness and community resilience in the face of escalating extreme weather events.

Geographic Location

• Hawaii County, Hawaii, United States (Hurricane Watch issued; extreme rainfall, catastrophic flooding, landslides, damaging winds, and storm surge expected from Tropical Storm Nolo)
• Maui County, Hawaii, United States (heavy rainfall, dangerous landslides expected, school and state office closures due to Tropical Storm Nolo)
• Guerrero, Mexico (threat of heavy rain and life-threatening mudslides from Hurricane Polo)