Summary (tl;dr)

The Canadian government is currently undertaking a lengthy review of its multi-billion dollar plan to acquire 88 F-35 fighter jets, exploring alternative suppliers and delaying a definitive decision for the country's future air fleet due to geopolitical and economic considerations.

Essential Background

Canada's Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) operates an aging fleet of CF-18 Hornets, which are nearing the end of their operational lifespan and require replacement. After a protracted procurement process that began in 1997 with Canada's participation in the Joint Strike Fighter program, the Canadian government officially selected the Lockheed Martin F-35A in March 2022 to succeed its CF-18s, with an agreement to purchase 88 jets finalized in early 2023. This decision was seen as the most significant investment in the RCAF in over 30 years.

The Full Story

In March 2025, Prime Minister Mark Carney initiated a comprehensive review of the F-35 procurement deal, citing concerns over Canada's potential over-reliance on the U.S. defense industry and deteriorating trade relations with the United States under the Trump administration. This review, initially anticipated to conclude around September 2025, remains ongoing, with Defense Minister David McGuinty recently confirming that there is no set timeline for a final decision.

As part of this re-evaluation, Canada is actively considering other options, including procuring Gripen E/F fighters from the Swedish defense producer SAAB. Canada is also exploring an observer role in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a sixth-generation fighter jet development program involving Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy. Despite the ongoing review, Canada has already committed funds for the first 16 F-35s and initiated payments for long-lead components associated with an additional 14 F-35s. Concurrently, Canada is investing in upgrades to extend the life of its existing CF-18 fleet until 2032 to bridge the gap until a new fleet is fully operational.

Why It Matters

The prolonged review and the potential shift away from a full F-35 fleet have significant implications for Canada's national defense strategy, its relationships with key allies, and its aerospace industry. The decision directly impacts Canada's ability to fulfill its commitments to North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and NATO, particularly in defending Canadian sovereignty and the Arctic. The consideration of non-U.S. suppliers also highlights a strategic move to diversify Canada's defense procurements and reduce reliance on a single source, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions and a re-evaluation of national security interests. The extended delay also poses challenges for the Royal Canadian Air Force as it continues to operate an aging fleet while awaiting a definitive decision on its future capabilities.

Geographic Location

• Ottawa, Ontario, Canada (Defense Minister's testimony to a Senate committee regarding the fighter jet review)
• Cold Lake, Alberta, Canada (site preparation work for a new fighter jet facility)
• Bagotville, Quebec, Canada (site preparation work for a new fighter jet facility)
• Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida, United States (Canadian CF-18 Hornets conducted live-fire testing of AIM-120D-3 AMRAAM missile)