Summary (tl;dr)

Recent polls indicate a highly competitive U.S. Senate race in Texas between Republican incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic State Representative James Talarico, with both candidates polling neck and neck ahead of the November midterm election.

Essential Background

Ken Paxton, the current Texas Attorney General, has a long history of political controversies, including felony securities fraud charges in 2015, an FBI investigation starting in 2020 for bribery and abuse of office allegations, and an impeachment by the Texas House in 2023, though he was later acquitted by the state Senate. Despite these challenges, he has consistently won elections, including a recent primary runoff for the U.S. Senate. James Talarico is a Texas State Representative first elected in 2018, known as a progressive Democrat and former middle school English teacher. He is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas, having defeated U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett in the primary.

The Full Story

New polls are revealing an unexpectedly tight contest in the Texas U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico. The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll found Paxton with 43% support and Talarico with 42%, a statistically indistinguishable difference within the margin of error. Other independent polls conducted in June confirm this razor-thin margin, showing Paxton with a slight lead of approximately 1.25 percentage points. This competitive landscape marks a significant shift, as Paxton had trailed Talarico by 8 points in an April survey from the same pollster. Paxton's support has reportedly surged among Republican voters who have unified behind him following a contentious primary runoff. Talarico, meanwhile, has garnered strong support from Democrats and independents. Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Paxton and is expected to campaign for him in Texas, while Talarico is focusing his campaign on issues like lowering costs.

Why It Matters

This unexpectedly close race in Texas is drawing significant attention because it presents a rare potential opportunity for Democrats to win a statewide U.S. Senate seat in a traditionally Republican stronghold, a feat not achieved since 1988. The outcome could have national implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. For Republicans, the tightness of the race underscores the challenge of consolidating support for Paxton amidst his ongoing legal and ethical controversies. For Democrats, Talarico's ability to compete closely with Paxton, fueled by strong fundraising and appeal to independent and moderate voters, signals a potentially shifting political landscape in Texas.

Geographic Location

• Texas, United States (U.S. Senate election)