Summary (tl;dr)

A tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha, prompting Tropical Storm Watches for coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama, with potential for heavy rainfall and storm surge.

Essential Background

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. Despite projections for a potentially subdued season in 2026 due to developing moderate El Niño conditions, tropical systems can still form and pose threats. The region currently experiencing activity has been monitored by forecasters as a low-pressure area over the past few days.

The Full Story

As of Monday, July 20, 2026, Tropical Depression Two (TD 02L) is located in the Gulf of Mexico, approximately 125 miles south of Panama City, Florida, and 220 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama. The depression is moving north-northwest at a slow pace of 3 mph and is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday afternoon. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Panhandle, stretching from the Ochlockonee River to the Florida/Alabama border, and for the Alabama Gulf coast from the Florida border to the Mississippi border. Maximum sustained winds are currently around 30 mph, with gradual strengthening anticipated. While direct impacts for areas like the Carolinas are currently deemed unlikely, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the Florida Panhandle and western Gulf coastline. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the system's track, noting that significant shifts are possible and could affect areas like Southeast Texas later in the week.

Why It Matters

Residents in the areas under a Tropical Storm Watch, particularly along the Florida Panhandle and Alabama Gulf coast, are urged to closely monitor official forecasts and prepare for potential tropical storm conditions, including sustained winds and heavy rainfall. The combination of storm surge and tide could lead to 1 to 3 feet of flooding in normally dry areas near the immediate coast, such as Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, Florida, and Mobile Bay. Heavy rainfall could also lead to flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Although the system is not currently favored to become a hurricane, its evolving nature requires continuous vigilance, as tropical systems can change intensity and track rapidly.

Geographic Location

• Gulf of Mexico (formation and movement of Tropical Depression Two/Bertha)
• Ochlockonee River, Florida, United States (Tropical Storm Watch in effect)
• Florida/Alabama Border, United States (Tropical Storm Watch in effect)
• Alabama/Mississippi Border, United States (Tropical Storm Watch in effect)
• Panama City, Bay County, Florida, United States (Tropical Depression Two located south of this city)
• Mobile, Mobile County, Alabama, United States (Tropical Depression Two located southeast of this city)