Summary (tl;dr)

A "super" El Niño is rapidly developing in the Pacific Ocean and is forecast to become the strongest on record by late 2026, driving significant and disruptive changes to global precipitation patterns, including widespread flooding and drought.

Essential Background

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by above-average warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which influences weather patterns worldwide. A "super" or "very strong" El Niño occurs when these ocean temperatures rise by 2° Celsius or more above average, leading to more intense and widespread global weather disruptions. Historically, there have been five such events, including notable ones in 1982-83 and 1997-98.

The Full Story

Forecasters from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) are "extremely confident" that a "very strong" El Niño will persist through the upcoming autumn and winter months of 2026-27. Current projections indicate that the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) could reach up to +2.7°C by this autumn, potentially making it the most intense El Niño event since records began in 1950, surpassing the previous record of +2.4°C set during the 1982-83 event. Some models suggest temperatures could even exceed 3°C, which would be an unprecedented level of warming. This intensifying El Niño is already influencing global weather, notably by suppressing the Atlantic hurricane season while simultaneously fueling above-average tropical activity in the Pacific. The phenomenon is expected to continue strengthening through late 2026 and persist until early spring 2027.

Why It Matters

This "super" El Niño is expected to cause widespread and severe impacts globally, including increased risks of flooding, droughts, unseasonable temperature extremes, crop failures, food shortages, disruptions in water supplies, displacement, and elevated risks of wildfires and cyclones. Specifically, increased rainfall and potential flooding are anticipated in parts of southern South America, the southern United States (including Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast), the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia. Conversely, drier conditions are forecast for Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia (eastern and northern parts), Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia, which will heighten wildfire risks, especially in Brazil and Indonesia. For British Columbia, Canada, a milder winter with below-normal precipitation is expected, leading to a potentially lower snowpack and increased wildfire risk in spring and summer 2027. The event could exacerbate global food insecurity and strain supply chains for key crops like maize and rice. Experts also view this extreme El Niño as a crucial "stress test" for understanding vulnerabilities and preparing for the amplified impacts of future climate change, as warmer oceans and atmosphere can intensify extreme weather events.

Geographic Location

• Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean (sea surface temperatures rising significantly due to El Niño)
• Southern California, California, United States (above-average rainfall and coastal flooding)
• Arizona, United States (increased precipitation)
• New Mexico, United States (increased precipitation)
• Gulf Coast, United States (increased precipitation, below-normal temperatures during winter, risk of flooding)
• Central and South Florida, Florida, United States (more severe weather, tornadoes, and flood events)
• Southeastern United States (increased precipitation)
• British Columbia, Canada (warmer than normal, milder winter temperatures, elevated chance of below-normal precipitation leading to lower snowpack and increased wildfire risk in spring/summer 2027)
• Southern South America (increased rainfall and flooding, particularly southeastern regions including Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil)
• Central America (warmer and drier conditions, low water in the Panama Canal)
• Northern South America (drier conditions, reduced wet-season rainfall in central Brazil and the Amazon)
• Eastern Australia (drier conditions)
• Northern Australia (drier conditions)
• Indonesia (drier conditions, increased wildfire risk)
• Southern Asia (drier conditions in parts)
• Horn of Africa (increased rainfall)
• Central Asia (increased rainfall)