Summary (tl;dr)

A "super El Niño" is strengthening in the Pacific, with a high probability of becoming historically strong, and is expected to significantly influence snowfall patterns across the United States and other parts of the world for the upcoming 2026-27 winter.

Essential Background

El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This oceanic warming can alter global weather patterns, affecting rainfall, winds, storm activity, and temperatures in various regions. The term "super El Niño" is informally used to describe exceptionally strong El Niño events. During El Niño winters, the polar jet stream typically shifts southward and extends eastward across the southern tier of the United States, drawing more moisture and precipitation into these areas. Historically, this often leads to increased snowfall in the southern U.S. and Southwest, while bringing warmer and drier conditions, and consequently reduced snowfall, to the northern U.S. and parts of Canada.

The Full Story

El Niño conditions are currently strengthening in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific already exceeding 2 degrees Celsius above normal. Forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicate a greater than 90% chance that this El Niño will become a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. There is also a 69% chance that it could reach a historic strength, surpassing all recorded El Niño events since 1950.

Meteorologists predict this "super El Niño" will bring above-normal snowfall to much of the Southwest, including California (especially the Central Sierra), Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of Colorado, primarily due to an expected active southern storm track. Conversely, forecasters project below-normal snowfall for parts of the Northern U.S. and Canada, with regions like Washington state and parts of the Northeast (e.g., northern New York, northern Vermont, Quebec's Eastern Townships) likely experiencing less snow due to warmer temperatures and reduced moisture. It is also predicted to bring above-normal snowfall to much of the Alps, particularly from France into western Austria, as well as Scandinavia. However, Japan's major ski regions face a different outlook, with projections for below-normal snowfall and above-normal temperatures. Despite the strong El Niño, warmer temperatures could still result in rain rather than snow at lower elevations in some areas, particularly in the West.

Why It Matters

The development of a "super El Niño" carries significant implications for water resources, winter sports industries, and regional preparations for the upcoming winter season. Areas in the Southwest, which have faced drought conditions, could experience much-needed relief through increased moisture and snowpack, vital for their water supplies. Ski resorts in historically favored regions, such as California and Utah, are anticipating a rebound in tourism and economic activity after a less-than-ideal 2025-26 snow season. Conversely, regions expecting less snowfall, like parts of the Northern U.S. and the Northeast, may face challenges for winter-dependent businesses and could experience milder winters overall. While overall seasonal temperatures may be milder in some areas, the enhanced moisture in the atmosphere associated with a super El Niño means that if cold air intrusions occur, they could lead to exceptionally large, record-setting snowstorms, creating a "boom-or-bust" snowfall potential.

Geographic Location

• Central Sierra, California, United States (favored for above-average snowfall)
• Utah, United States (ski areas favored for above-average snowfall)
• Arizona, United States (favored for above-average snowfall)
• New Mexico, United States (favored for above-average snowfall, potential reduction in drought)
• Southern Colorado, Colorado, United States (parts favored for above-average snowfall)
• Washington State, United States (projected below-normal snowfall)
• Northern New York, New York, United States (generally recorded less snow than average during moderate to strong El Niño)
• Northern Vermont, Vermont, United States (generally recorded less snow than average during moderate to strong El Niño)
• Quebec's Eastern Townships, Quebec, Canada (generally recorded less snow than average during moderate to strong El Niño)
• Alps, Europe (above-normal snowfall, particularly from France into western Austria)
• Scandinavia, Europe (above-normal snowfall)
• Major ski regions, Japan (projected below-normal snowfall and above-normal temperatures)
• Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean (strengthening El Niño conditions, unusually warm sea surface temperatures)